at Russia Insider
US May Be Looking to Extract Itself From the Ukraine Quagmire
The Ukraine crisis has not yielded the desired anti-Russian results for Washington and is unlikely to in the future. Meanwhile the dysfunctional country is a liability to any sponsor.
Direct Russian-US communication channels have been opened for Ukraine
Two small news items have not received much attention recently, and yet they might be the signs of something big happening:
Poroshenko has fired the notorious head of the equally notorious Security Service of Ukraine or SBU: Valentin Nalivaichenko. [AD Note: Between 2001 and 2003, Valenin Nalyvaichenko worked as a general consul (adviser), for the Embassy of Ukraine, Washington, D.C. This is probably the point where Nalivaichenko was picked up as a CIA asset.]Sergei Ivanov, the powerful Deputy Prime Minister of Russia has stated that the U.S. and Russia have created a bilateral communications channel on the Ukraine run by Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, for the U.S. and Grigorii Karasin, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, for Russia. The official reason for that was "not to complicate" the already delicate "Normandy-format".
So on one hand, we have Kerry and Nuland who came to Russia and who, by all accounts, got nothing of what they asked for but who are now getting a "communications channel", while at the same time, the 100% U.S.-controlled Nalivaichenko, who is rumored to be an actual CIA agent recruited many years ago, is booted out by Poroshenko. Rumor also has it that Arsen Avakov, the Minister of Internal Affairs, will be next to be kicked out.
These two will now communicate?
There might be no connection here, but my guess is that there is.
The reason why Nalivaichenko was fired is not so much because of the various corruptions scandals he — and all other junta members — were involved in as much as it is Poroshenko's attempt to place "his" men in all key (power) positions. That, in turn, shows that his regime is getting weaker, not stronger – hence the need to strengthen and consolidate.
I also believe that the Americans are fully aware of this process and this is why they now want a direct channel of communication with Russia: because they fully realize that the only two powers that matter in reality are the U.S. and Russia, especially now that events are getting out of control in Kiev.
One of the best Ukraine specialists out there, Ishchenko, is now saying that the U.S. has concluded that the Ukraine is a total mess and that it is now trying to get out at the least possible cost. I tend to agree with this explanation, though I am not as confident as Ishchenko that we will see this political pullout play out this year.
Because make no mistake: the $300 million allocated by Congress to arm the Ukraine is a joke. A drop of water into a desert. It will change nothing. Most of it will be stolen and the rest will be wasted.
The expected Ukrainian attack on Novorussia has not happened either, and while the rhetoric in Kiev is more bellicose than ever, and while the Ukrainian forces along the line of contact are constantly shelling Novorussia, no real, full scale, attack has happened. Could it be that the Ukrainians are truly afraid of the consequences of an always possible Novorussian counterattack?
It is also becoming increasingly obvious that the U.S. has failed to isolate Russia and that the Russia economy is doing way better than anybody, including the Kremlin, had expected.
So if the Ukraine cannot be used to mount a military attack on Novorussia with the goal of force Russia to intervene, and if the civil war in the Ukraine has failed to produce the kind of isolation and sanctions against Russia which Washington wanted – then what is the use of the Ukraine to Uncle Sam?
Yes, sure, there is the port of Odessa, and some industrial and natural resources that Western corporations will be able to acquire for a fraction of its value, but these benefits pale in comparison with the immense costs of somehow tackling the huge economic, social and political problems of the Ukraine.
It will come to that sooner or later anyway. The U.S. made an unholy mess of Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and it always ended up getting out, at least politically. Why should it be different for the Ukraine?
I submit that if the U.S. analysts came to the conclusion that there is no hope of forcing Russia to sent her forces into the Donbass then the Ukraine becomes useless. The chances of Russia doing so appear to be very close to zero right now. True, there is the very dangerous situation in Transnistria which might, really, force Russia to intervene, but for some reason the U.S. does not seem to be eager to trigger an immediate crisis. Could it be that the U.S. is holding Transnistria as a bargaining chip against Russia in a "you don't make things too bad for us or else…" kind of strategy? Maybe. I honestly don’t know.
It will be interesting to see of Avakov get's booted out next and how the various Ukrainian nazi death-squads will react to the firing of their patrons in Kiev.
This article appeared
Farewell to Arms: Over 10,000 Soldiers Desert Ukrainian Army
Desertion galore: Ukrainian men understand the absurdity of the war their government is waging.
Ukrainian soldier sits atop of a self-propelled gun as an army column of military vehicles prepares to roll to a frontline near Illovaisk, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine
More than 10,000 cases of desertion have been registered in the Ukrainian Army since the outbreak of the Donbass war in April 2014, Ukrainian Vesti reported.
In 2014 the army suffered heavy desertion and nearly 30 percent of the servicemen called up in the first wave of mobilization (March 17) abandoned their positions, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said.
Ukrainian parliament Verkhovna Rada has announced six waves of mobilization so far. By the end of 2014 the strength of Ukrainian Armed Forces grew from 130,000 to 232,000.
Some 1.3 Million Ukrainian Draftees Reside in Russia - Russian Official
Ukrainians have been protesting against the mobilization. They travel to work abroad or simply reside at their relatives' in other countries. Almost 1.3 million Ukrainian draftees live in Russia.
Since April 7, 2014, the Kiev authorities have been waging war against Donbass self-defense forces who rejected the legitimacy of the coup-imposed Ukrainian government and declared the independent republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Official figures estimate the number of victims to near 6,500. But the German intelligence reported of 50,000 victims in February 2015.
Recent news from Ukraine military:
Ukrainian Defense Ministry official and major-general
has defected to the Donetsk (DPR) armed forces