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Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, 28 - 20 percent among likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released Thursday morning.
This is the first time Trump has not been in the lead in the GOP field in Iowa since he entered the race. Carson has tied him twice before but has never led, CBS Senior Political Editor Steve Chaggaris noted.
In its last survey, Sept.11, the Quinnipiac poll found Trump leading the Republican field with 27 percent to Carson's 21 percent.
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Marco Rubio is in third, with 13 percent, followed by Ted Cruz, who attracted 10 percent support. Rand Paul has six percent and Jeb Bush is tied with Carly Fiorina - both have five percent.
Carson's strength in this poll lies in his appeal to women, who chose Carson over Trump, 33 - 13 percent. Among men, the two are virtually tied, with 25 percent for Carson, compared to 24 percent for Trump.
Thirty percent of likely GOP caucus goers say there is no way they'd support Trump, followed by Bush, with 21 percent who said there's no way they'd support him.
Still, Trump is thought to have strong leadership qualities, with 80 percent, compared to Carson's 76 percent.
And even though Bush is trailing, 76 percent of poll respondents think he has the right kind of experience to be president, topping Cruz at 70 percent, Rubio at 69 percent, Carson at 57 percent, and Trump at 56 percent.
From October 14 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 574 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers called land lines and cell phones.
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International New York Times
Second Iowa Poll in Two Days Shows Evangelicals Bolstering Ben Carson Ahead of Donald Trump
Donald J. Trump, at a campaign stop in Burlington, Iowa, on Wednesday, is in second place in a Republican presidential poll for the second time in as many days.Credit Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Donald J. Trump may have lost his grip on Iowa, as the second poll in two days shows the billionaire Republican presidential candidate trailing Ben Carson in the state that kicks off the nominating process.
A new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows Mr. Carson with support of 28 percent of the likely participants in Iowa's Republican caucuses, with Mr. Trump at 19 percent. In August, Mr. Trump was leading Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, 23 to 18. The poll has a margin of error of five percentage points.
Mr. Trump frequently parades his strong poll numbers as a top qualification, raising questions about how he will respond if a string of polls show his support falling. In an interview with the Fox Business Network on Thursday, he maintained that he was not worried.
"We'll see what happens, but certainly, we have a long road to go," he said.
Friday's survey, which follows a poll from Quinnipiac University on Thursday that showed Mr. Carson overtaking Mr. Trump in Iowa, revealed the challenges that the real estate mogul and reality television star faces in courting evangelical Christian conservatives. Only 32 percent said they were sure that Mr. Trump is a committed Christian, while 62 percent said they found it attractive that Mr. Carson was guided by his faith.
Among the other Republican candidates, Senator Ted Cruz comes in third place at 10 percent, while everyone else remains stuck in single digits.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton topped Senator Bernie Sanders, 48 to 41 percent.
Mr. Carson's recent comments suggesting that a Muslim should never be president and that the Holocaust could have been prevented if the Jewish people in Germany were armed appealed to Iowans, while Mr. Trump's attacks on his fellow Republicans appeared to be starting to wear thin.
Mr. Trump offered his first retraction of the campaign on Thursday, apologizing on behalf of an intern who resent on Twitter an insult about Iowans eating too much corn. However, he has been working to show Iowans that religion is important to him by carrying his Bible to events and telling them how much he loves Christmas.
"I'm a good Christian," Mr. Trump said in Iowa this week. "If I become president, we're gonna be saying Merry Christmas at every store."
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